Alan Greenblatt is a GOVERNING correspondent.E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
Monmouth/Gannett: Corzine 43, Christie 41, Daggett 8
SurveyUSA: Christie 45, Corzine 42, Daggett 10
Democracy Corps: Corzine 41, Christie 37, Daggett 15
Quinnipiac: Christie 42, Corzine 40, Daggett 12
PPP: Christie 47, Corzine 41, Daggett 11
Corzine's high water mark among these polls is 43 percent. Given Daggett's softening support, that doesn't look to me like enough to win. But Democrats have much stronger organizational support than Republicans in New Jersey and certainly the GOP has had its heart broken at the Garden State polls plenty of times in recent years.
Yet it would be odd for late voters to break for the incumbent in the appreciable way that Corzine will need. If he goes down, coupled with the GOP's near-certain win tomorrow in the Virginia governor's race and a Conservative win in the one special congressional race, it will certainly be a big night for Republicans, convertible into months of bragging rights.
GOVERNING Politics is the place for news and analysis on campaigns and elections. If there's a ballot measure in California, a legislative election in Alabama, a mayoral election in Anchorage or a governor's race in Rhode Island, GOVERNING Politics probably is writing about it. We love everything about state and local politics, from polls and campaign ads to policy debates and demographic trends.