What to Watch at 8

Posted By Alan Greenblatt | November 4, 2008

Lots of states come in at this hour.

New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch, a Democrat, is a sure winner.

The Missouri governor's race will also be called quickly. Democrat Jay Nixon should take this without problem, replacing Republican Matt Blunt. If the race isn't called early, watch for returns in St. Charles and Jefferson counties in suburban St. Louis. Nixon taking more than about 47 percent of the vote in either jurisdiction will equal a win statewide.

Democrats need 11 seats to take the House, which is a tall climb. But we expect them to gain ground.

Democrats should also take the Delaware House and build on their slim majority next door in the Pennsylvania House. Democrat Jack Markell is likely to be the next governor of Delaware.

The Maine Senate is in play but it would be an upset for Republicans to take control. However, this is the hour when they will start counting votes in Oklahoma and Tennessee, which should be bright spots for the GOP. Both states' Senates are tied and should go Republican.

Florida is the big presidential prize this hour. Networks will take their time calling it -- but it won't take 36 days.

Florida is also voting on a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. It needs 60% of the vote to pass, so its chances are uncertain.

This is a big hour for ballot measures. Michigan is voting on stem cell research and medical marijuana. Massachusetts also has a marijuana-related vote and is considering a repeal of the state income tax. Maryland is voting on whether to allow slot-machine gambling.

Alan Greenblatt

Alan Greenblatt is a GOVERNING correspondent.

E-mail: mailbox@governing.com
Twitter: @governing

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