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From CQ Weekly, PETER HARKNESS It Does Take a Village 
My neighborhood suddenly is going senior-friendly. A "Livable Community Network Questionnaire" in the latest issue of our neighborhood newsletter asked prospective volunteers how they might like to assist their elderly neighbors so they might "remain in their homes as they age and have their needs met." I first learned about this plan to establish a "Palisades Village" in, of all places, the New York Times, which ran a lengthy story about my part of northwest Washington, D.C., that featured an elderly couple who live on my block. I've known them for years, but I had to read the story to discover they'd both taken serious falls in recent months and were worried about completing such simple tasks as changing a light bulb. I was about to drop them a note saying, "Just call me," when this questionnaire arrived.
Evidently, my neighborhood is hardly alone. "Along with more than 100 communities nationwide," the Times reported, Palisades Village "is part of a movement to make neighborhoods comfortable places to grow old, both for elderly men and women in need of help, and baby boomers anticipating the future." The movement began in the Beacon Hill area of Boston six years ago and has spread quickly through much of the country. Typically, these villages register as nonprofit corporations, levy modest dues on their members and provide a range of services — from transportation, security and home repair to cooking meals or just offering regular companionship. Most, but not all, of these arrangements are in communities that are relatively affluent, so the older residents generally are healthier and more self-sufficient. But as the "silver tsunami" of 80 million aging baby boomers washes across the land in the next few decades, most every town, city and county in every state will be affected. Consider these figures from a recent demographic analysis by the Brookings Institution: While the "pre-senior" age group of people 55 to 64 will grow fastest between 2000 and 2010, the largest increase among "young seniors" ages 65 to 74 will occur from 2010 to 2020, as the first boomers age into those years. Growth in what Brookings called "mature seniors," those 75 and older, will be much smaller over the first two decades of the century — but then it will balloon. It is the demographic equivalent of the pig in the python, and although it will affect some areas much more than others, it will affect everyone. Pennsylvania is the state with the slowest-growing population of people 65 and older, but it will nonetheless experience a 51 percent gain in the next three decades. But compare that with Nevada, with the fastest-growing senior population now, projected to grow 264 percent in the same period. The difference is that in the slower-growing states, mainly in the Northeast and Midwest, the increase will largely be driven by the "aging in place" phenomenon, while in the fast-growing states of the South and West there will also be a significant wave of arrivals of seniors from elsewhere. POLITICAL IMPACT In Washington, the silver tsunami continues to raise big worries about the long-term solvency of the big three entitlement programs: Social Security, Medicare and the federal share of Medicaid. Everyone agrees the existing trend lines are not sustainable for any of the three, although no one has shown the creativity or political fortitude to do anything about it. Out in the country, the effects are likely to be greatest at the local level, as we are seeing with the emerging villages, which not only are relatively inexpensive to run but also can save a bundle in health care costs by keeping seniors out of nursing homes. Beyond that, though, state and local government will have plenty to think about. As suburban sprawl worsens, more elderly people who have lost their driver's licenses could be stranded in their homes if public transit isn't improved significantly. There will be pressure to smooth, widen or construct more sidewalks or pathways to handle a growing number of wheelchairs and electric carts. Social services will have to be better integrated with nonprofit and volunteer programs in lower-income elderly villages — and across regional lines rather than fragmented among smaller jurisdictions, as they are today. Affordable housing, particularly in cities, will have to be built. Access to health care will have to be provided. No one seems to know exactly what effect the silver tsunami will have on metropolitan areas. It appears that the boomers, who built the nation's suburbs in the first place, will largely stick with them, so the suburbs will age faster than their cities. Yet there are some indications that higher-income, better-educated seniors will want to live where there is more age diversity, easy access to public transit and plenty of cultural amenities, and so will migrate to cities in sufficient numbers to improve their tax bases. Finally, there is the political impact. Any politician can tell you why they pay so much attention to seniors: They turn out to vote more than any other demographic. And since there will be so many more of them as the boomers retire, they inevitably will be able to command that much more attention. They always have. Recent columns: © 2007, Congressional Quarterly, Inc. Reproduction in any form without the written permission of the publisher is prohibited. Governing, City & State and Governing.com are registered trademarks of Congressional Quarterly, Inc. |
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